Marketers Predict N800/Litre Petrol as Imported Fuel Costs Drop
The ongoing price competition in Nigeria’s downstream oil sector intensified on Tuesday as major oil marketers moved to undercut the N825 per litre gantry loading cost set by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
This development follows reports that the landing cost of imported Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) has fallen to N774.72 per litre, a decline of N50.28 from Dangote’s refinery price. Industry stakeholders suggest that this downward trend could lead to a reduction in pump prices, potentially bringing petrol to around N800 per litre.
The reduction in landing costs, which account for expenses such as shipping, import duties, and exchange rates, has fueled a price war among marketers. Many are now opting for imported fuel over locally refined products due to its lower cost.
According to Chief Ukadike Chinedu, National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Marketers Association of Nigeria, fluctuations in crude oil prices are a key factor influencing the cost of fuel. “A further reduction in crude oil prices will definitely cause a drop in petrol prices,” he stated.
Recent price adjustments by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) and the Dangote Refinery have also intensified market competition. Last week, NNPC lowered its retail petrol price from N945–N965 per litre to N860–N880 per litre in Lagos and Abuja, aligning with Dangote’s retail price reduction. Earlier, Dangote had also dropped its ex-depot price from N890 to N825 per litre.
However, these price cuts have posed financial challenges for fuel importers, leading to daily losses of approximately N2.5 billion and an estimated monthly loss of N75 billion. In response, marketers have sourced fresh imports at lower costs, further pressuring Dangote’s refinery.
Data from the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria revealed that the estimated import parity into tanks has dropped to N774.82 per litre—a 16.5% decline from the N927.48 per litre recorded on February 21, 2025. The 30-day average price also fell to N864.92 per litre, while on-the-spot sales at the Nigerian Pipelines and Storage Company (NPSC) terminal stood at N927.53 per litre.
Meanwhile, several private depots have adjusted their prices, offering rates lower than Dangote’s refinery. Depots such as AA RANO, MENJ, and MRS TINCAN now sell at N830 per litre, while others like WOSBAB and AITEO set their prices at N832. In contrast, marketers who purchased from Dangote at N825 per litre are reselling at N835, making only a marginal N1 profit and pricing their stock higher than private depot alternatives.
Oil and gas expert Olatide Jeremiah predicts that the current market dynamics may compel Dangote Refinery to lower its ex-gantry price to remain competitive. According to Jeremiah, private depots have secured fuel at cheaper rates, making them a more attractive option for marketers. He noted that inconsistent pricing has caused traders to shift their business to private depots, where there is greater stability.
“Last week, petrol and diesel prices started falling, and by Thursday, they were below Dangote’s ex-depot price of N825 per litre. Many marketers have stopped buying from the refinery, preferring private depots selling at N830 or N831 per litre,” Jeremiah explained.
Amid these fluctuations, the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) has voiced concerns over frequent fuel price reductions, arguing that marketers are incurring losses. PETROAN has called for regulatory measures to ensure that fuel prices remain unchanged for at least six months, despite the deregulated market.
In a statement by PETROAN Publicity Secretary Joseph Obele, the association also reversed its stance on fuel imports, advocating for increased competition to prevent monopolistic pricing.